Category: International

Perseus Mining (ASX: PRU) has reported a 21% increase in gold production in Q3 FY26, producing 107,144oz across its three West African operations as the company maintains full-year guidance. Production increased from 88,888oz in the previous quarter, with higher output recorded at Yaouré and Sissingué in Côte d’Ivoire, and Edikan in Ghana. Gold sales also rose to 96,260oz, supported by stronger production and a higher realised gold price of US$4143/oz, up from US$3437/oz in the December quarter.  Perseus reported all-in site costs of US$1748/oz, down from US$1800/oz in the prior quarter, while average cash margin increased to US$2395/oz, generating US$252m in notional operating cash flow. Cash and bullion at the quarter’s end stood at US$817m alongside US$254m in liquid listed securities.  Operationally, the quarter also marked first gold from the CMA Underground at Yaouré, while the Nyanzaga gold project in Tanzania remained on track for first production in January 2027 after a 73% increase in ore reserves to 4.0moz. Perseus said it continues to monitor fuel supply availability amid the Iran war, though no operational disruptions were reported during the quarter. The company left its FY26 guidance unchanged at 400,000-440,000oz at all in site costs of US$1600-US$1760/oz, with management citing continued strong operating performance across the portfolio. 

Thermal coal demand is rising globally as countries scramble to secure energy supplies despite constrained trade flows through the Middle East.While the Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical chokepoint for oil and gas, relatively little thermal coal trade passes through it directly and major coal exporters, including Australia, are not directly exposed to the route, according to Wood Mackenzie.Wood Mackenzie bulk commodities principal analyst Sushmita Vazirani says in supply shocks of this scale, coal becomes a critical fallback for energy security.“Despite decarbonisation commitments across Asia, tightening LNG supply and elevated prices are accelerating fuel switching back to coal,” she said.However, the current energy crisis has exposed the geopolitical dependency risks associated with using gas as a transitional fuel as higher gas prices drive fuel switching toward coal in price-sensitive markets across Asia and Europe, Wood Mackenzie said.Wood Mackenzie has found that in Northeast Asia, Coal-fired generation remains firm despite seasonal demand weakness in the region, supported by rising LNG prices.Taiwan is preparing to restart the Hsinta coal-fired power plant, which could consume about 5.5mtpa of thermal coal. South Korea has increased guidance for Russian coal imports, while Japan is expected to rely more on nuclear generation, including restarts such as Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6.Gas accounts for less than 3% of power generation in China, according to Wood Mackenzie, and the country remains relatively insulated from the current energy markets shocks.In Europe, the Italian Government has delayed its coal phase-out by 13 years to 2038 as its energy transition is tested by geopolitical shocks.Germany is also reportedly reviewing its current coal phase out strategy and is considering reactivating standby coal-fired power plants to reduce energy prices.However, the coal industry is not completely insulated from the impacts of rising fuel prices.Wood Mackenzie predicts that, for every US$10/bbl increase in crude oil prices, coal mine site costs increase by US$1–3/t, placing additional pressure on already tight supply .“Rising diesel prices are creating a cost squeeze for coal producers, just as markets call for more supply,” Ms Vazirani said.“In Australia, heavy reliance on imported diesel adds an additional layer of risk, potentially constraining output and tightening global markets.”The market is already seeing rising prices with FOB Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal averaging US$126/t in March before prices rose to US$132/t in early April, up from US$114/t in February, according to Wood Mackenzie data.

China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has reportedly told several Chinese steel mills they can purchase some BHP (ASX: BHP) cargoes, relaxing restrictions that have been in place since September 2025.The state-backed iron ore buyer is reportedly allowing domestic plants to resume bidding for some BHP shipments denominated in US dollars, according to Bloomberg.The move follows a recent trip to China by BHP chief executive Mike Henry and incoming chief executive Brandon Craig where they met with executives at China Baowu, the world’s largest steel maker.“We have strong relationships with copper producers and steelmakers in China,” Mr Craig said in a LinkedIn post.“ produce around 130mt of steel a year… the reliable supply of quality Pilbara iron ore has made a big contribution to this remarkable growth story, and it will continue to do so in the years ahead.”CMRG was established in 2022 to shift the power dynamics between China and iron ore majors, including BHP, with the Chinese Government arguing that iron ore unfairly favoured the dollar-denominated seaborne market.Commercial negotiations between BHP and CMRG have been ongoing since September as CMRG continues to place pressure on BHP to accept new price-setting mechanisms. After BHP reportedly rejected the term, CMRG banned the import of Jimblebar fines grade before enforcing broader restrictions on all dollar-denominated cargoes.

Iran has agreed to allow conditional passage through the Strait of Hormuz under a two-week ceasefire with the US.The specifics of the agreement remain unclear and the extent of its influence on oil traffic through the region is yet to be determined.In a post to Truth Social, US President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed to a complete, immediate and safe reopening of the strait. However, Iran Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that the removal of the blockade would be conditional."For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via a coordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations,” he said.Shipping remained limited in the first 24 hours following the ceasefire, with only a small number of vessels transiting the Strait, according to shipping monitors.Shipping through the strait has been severely disrupted since the conflict began in late February.According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), prior to the conflict, about 150 vessels passed through the waterway every day — that number has since dwindled to less than five a day.The IMO has estimated that there are about 2000 ships, including oil and gas tankers, currently stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the blockade.Though the reopening of the critical chokepoint will provide some much-needed relief to the global energy market, the disruption to global supply chains has already been severe. Wood Mackenzie says recovery is likely to be a months-long process even with the ceasefire in place.The 11 million barrels a day of upstream production currently shut-in across the Middle East can only be restored when export logistics normalise, which is extremely unlikely to happen overnight, according to Wood Mackenzie.Wood Mackenzie refining, chemicals and oil markets vice president Alan Gelder says a workable system of transit and shipowner confidence in the security of the transiting vessels is essential for traffic flows to resume.“There also needs to be confidence in viability of transit during and beyond the current two-week ceasefire,” he said.Wood Mackenzie says laden vessels have every incentive to transit the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as insurance and security assurances allow, but it is unclear what rate of transits can be achieved safely."Ballasting vessels are unlikely to enter via the Strait of Hormuz any sooner than a just in time logistics basis, at risk of becoming trapped if hostilities resume," Mr Gelder said."Onshore storage drawdown remains constrained by over-the-jetty load rates, onshore inventories cannot be instantaneously transferred to ballasting vessels."As export volumes ramp up, storage ullage will allow upstream production and refining operations to resume. However, the level of storage varies from less than two weeks for Iraq and Kuwait to about a month for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to Wood Mackenzie.Wood Mackenzie upstream analysis head Fraser McKay says the initial recovery from major fields will be more than sufficient to meet the ramp-up of export volumes, but shipping logistics will remain the constraint on upstream recovery for several weeks."Thereafter, as those constraints begin to ease, the constraints on supply will shift to the upstream production and this will expose the different challenges each country faces,” he said.“More than half of most field's previous supply levels could be restored before shipping constraints ease.”Even unconstrained, it will take countries like Iraq a long time to reach prior production levels — as long as six to nine months — given the complexities introduced by both reservoir management and resource limitations, according to Wood Mackenzie.Wood Mackenzie Europe gas and LNG analyst Tom Marzec-Manser says the ceasefire means it may be possible for the 14 trapped laden LNG cargoes in the Gulf to exit the Strait of Hormuz and provide some relief to the global gas market.“But for there to be a real structural change in supply the Ras Laffan site in Qatar would need to restart its 12 operable trains,” he said.“It is unclear if QatarEnergy would consider doing this during a ceasefire, however."Wood Mackenzie estimated that if QatarEnergy began restarting Ras Laffan at the start of May, it would take until the end of August for the 12 trains to return to full service.Though operational outlooks are uncertain, outcomes depend on whether the ceasefire holds. Representatives from the US and Iran are set to meet in Pakistan later this week to undergo peace talks.

The Antimony Ridge project in Idaho will be included in the US Federal FAST-41 Permitting Transparency Program, as Resolution Minerals (ASX: RML) looks to advance proposed bulk sampling and drilling activities.FAST-41 designation is expected to accelerate permitting timelines through enhanced inter-agency coordination, transparent milestone tracking and dedicated federal oversight.Resolution said the program inclusion is expected to enhance investor visibility and support engagement with potential strategic partners and funding sources aligned with the US critical minerals policy.The designation comes in response to the Trump Administration’s move to reduce reliance on foreign adversaries for the supply of critical minerals with the White House calling for immediate measures to facilitate domestic mineral production.US Congressman Russ Fulcher says antimony is a key component in the production of defence weaponry and energy technology.“I am pleased to see the Antimony Ridge project receive FAST-41 transparency status,” he said.“Ensuring we have a strong domestic supply of this natural resource — sourced right here in Idaho in an environmentally friendly way — is vital to US national defence and economic security.”The US remains heavily reliant on imported antimony, with China dominating global production.Resolution Minerals says US antimony and tungsten supplies are critically low due to ongoing global conflicts and export restrictions.Resolution US operations chief executive Craig Lindsay says Antimony Ridge is a key part of the company’s broader strategy to develop a US-based critical minerals platform.“With exploration, processing infrastructure and multiple development pathways now coming together at Horse Heaven, we believe the company is uniquely positioned to capitalise on strong demand for antimony, tungsten and gold,” he said.Antimony Ridge is part of the Horse Heaven project, which includes a recently acquired processing mill and infrastructure, historical tungsten stockpiles and a fully funded Phase 2 drilling program at Golden Gate.Resolution will now work with the US Forest Service to advance the Antimony Ridge plan of operations through the FAST-41 process.Following approval, Resolution intends to commence a bulk sampling program of near-surface high-grade antimony mineralisation, alongside a drilling campaign designed to define the scale of the system.

The Middle East conflict is reinforcing energy security as a central pillar of power planning in Japan and South Korea. While both Japanese and South Korean energy markets remain relatively insulated from immediate fuel supply disruption, the current conflict in the Middle East is accelerating structural shifts toward nuclear expansion.   Unlike many Asia-Pacific markets, Japan and South Korea face manageable near-term risk from potential LNG supply disruption through the Qatar–UAE corridor.  According to Wood Mackenzie, Japan’s direct exposure to the disruption is about 6%, compared with about 15% for South Korea.In Japan, fuel cost pass-through is delayed by around three to six months due to bilateral pricing mechanisms. In South Korea, the cost-based power pool and retail tariff caps help limit short-term volatility, although this places additional financial strain on Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO).Wood Mackenzie Asia Pacific power and renewables research principal analyst Xiaonan Feng says diversified procurement and long-term contracts provide Japan and South Korea with multiple layers of protection, delaying the impact of fuel price volatility on power end users. “However, the broader policy implications of the crisis are likely to be long-lasting,” she said. Coal generation currently provides a significant near-term buffer, with coal fleets expected to offset up to 70% of gas-fired generation in Japan and more than 100% in South Korea of the same season last year, according to new analysis from Wood Mackenzie.Japan’s position is further supported by the restart of five nuclear reactors since 2022, adding 4.6 GW of baseload capacity that is insulated from fossil fuel price volatility.In Japan, the transition from post-Fukushima nuclear minimisation to expansion is now firmly established, making nuclear power an essential for long-term energy security.In South Korea, nuclear power continues to gain policy and public support, with the South Korean Government identifying nuclear as critical to meeting future electricity demand, with the potential for additional capacity beyond current plans.  Decisions on lifetime extensions for about 7.8GW of reactors due to reach design limits by 2030 will be key to the country’s energy mix, according to Wood Mackenzie.At the same time, both markets are increasingly prioritising domestic supply chains within their energy transition strategies.Japan is reassessing its reliance on imported solar panels while focusing on next-generation technologies such as perovskite cells and expanding offshore wind capacity.  South Korea has already moved to favour domestically manufactured equipment in recent offshore wind and battery storage auctions, signalling a shift toward localisation over lowest-cost deployment.According to Wood Mackenzie, the extent of market impact will depend on the duration of the conflict.  “The immediate risks are manageable, but the long-term direction is clear,” Ms Feng said.  “Energy security considerations will continue to accelerate nuclear expansion, delay coal retirements and drive greater emphasis on domestic energy supply chains in both markets.”

Resolution Copper will move into its next phase after a lengthy legal battle over the transfer of land in Arizona came to an end.On Friday, the Ninth Circuit upheld a lower court decision denying a preliminary injunction that had sought to stop the land exchange. The ruling cleared the way for the US Forest Service and Resolution Copper to complete the transfer.Under the exchange, Resolution Copper will transfer more than 5,400 acres of environmentally sensitive land into federal protection and received more than 2,400 acres adjacent to the historic Magma copper mine near Superior, Arizona.The project, owned by Rio Tinto (55%) and BHP (45%), has been tied up in litigation and permitting disputes for years despite the land exchange mechanism dating back to 2014.In August 2025, the Ninth Circuit temporarily blocked the land transfer while it considered last-minute legal challenges from the San Carlos Apache Tribe and environmental groups. President Donald Trump later criticised the ruling, calling it a decision by a “radical left court”.Following the milestone, Resolution Copper announced an additional US$500m in preliminary spending over the next two years to support enabling works, including surface drilling to gather more resource information, funding for Native American Tribes and local communities, upgrades to project infrastructure and initial underground development activities. The company said the spending is also expected to create about 100 new jobs.The development comes as Washington pushes to strengthen domestic copper supply.USGS says Arizona accounts for about 70% of US copper mine output, but the country still relies heavily on imported refined metal. In 2025, refined copper imports rose to 1.7 million tonnes, while domestic refined output fell about 9% due to planned maintenance at both primary smelters.“The national security of America depends on our ability to harness the abundant natural resources we are blessed with in this country,” US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins said.“The Resolution Copper project is a prime example of bureaucratic and legal chokeholds preventing our rural communities, supply chains and defence industry from producing the minerals we need right here in America.“Completing this land exchange unlocks a major domestic source of copper, essential for defence, grid modernisation and next-generation energy, and positions the nation to secure its future by expanding mineral production and unleashing America’s full resource potential.“This responsible mining project fulfills President Trump’s vision of American mineral independence.”While supply is not an immediate concern, the US is still seeking to strengthen its domestic copper position. Arizona accounts for about 70% of US copper mine output, but the country remains reliant on imported refined metal and is facing pressure across its own smelting and refining base.USGS data shows refined copper imports remain substantial, while domestic refined output fell in 2025 as smelters underwent maintenance.In February 2025, Trump ordered a Section 232 investigation into copper imports on national security grounds and later announced a 50% tariff on copper imports effective from August 1, 2025.Rio Tinto Copper chief executive Katie Jackson says the completion of the land exchange marks a significant milestone for a project with the potential to supply up to 25% of US copper demand for decades.“ expected to add $1b a year to Arizona’s economy and create thousands of local jobs in a region where mining has played an important role for more than a century.“As demand for copper continues to grow, projects like Resolution can play an important role in strengthening domestic supply chains. We acknowledge the support of the US Government and its growing recognition of the need for domestic sources of copper and other critical materials.”

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) has secured a $1.648b (US$1.175b) financing package from four international lenders to help fund the development of its Rincon lithium project in Argentina’s Salta Province.  The funding package includes loans from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), IDB Invest, Export Finance Australia (EFA) and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC). Proceeds will support development of the $3.5b (US$2.5b) Rincon lithium project, which is targeting about 60,000tpa of battery grade lithium carbonate capacity.  Construction of the plant is already underway, with works including camp expansion works and development of site infrastructure starting in 2025. Rio Tinto’s chief executive aluminium & lithium Jérôme Pécresse comments on the funding. “This financing package broadens our funding sources for the Rincon project and supports the continued execution of our lithium growth pipeline, which is underpinned by the attractive long-term outlook driven by the energy transition,” he said. First production is expected in 2028 with a three-year ramp-up to full capacity.  

South32 (ASX: S32) says the US Forest Service (USFS) has indicated it would approve Hermosa’s development onto National Forest Service land.If granted, this approval would allow South32 to construct ancillary infrastructure on US Forest Service land, including a primary access road and a secondary dry-stack tailings facility, while also enabling a third party to build part of a 138kV power line to supply the project.South32 Hermosa president Pat Risner says the decision reflected years of listening, collaboration and real changes shaped by community input.“This draft decision affirms our design and development approach including mitigation measures as described in the final environmental impact statement, that were informed through agency and public consultation,” he said.South32 Hermosa environment and permitting director Brent Musslewhite says he was proud of the team for their efforts to get the FEIS over the line.“This is a significant milestone for Hermosa,” he said.“Getting a major mining project through an EIS process in less than two years is almost unheard of and testament to the quality of our people, plans and work. I couldn’t be prouder to work with such amazing teams.”As part of the federal FAST-41 permitting program, the USFS conducted a thorough, independent analysis of Hermosa’s possible environmental impacts, with the Draft ROD determining that the proposal would result in the least surface disturbance on National Forest Service lands, compared to alternatives.The release of the Draft ROD now kicks off a review period for feedback provided during previous public comment periods. The Final ROD is expected to be published in July with a Notice to Proceed expected in September.

Weapons stock depletion may not ultimately decide the outcome of the Iran-US conflict, but it could certainly play a major role.An integral part of the current offensive in Iran is the US’s Patriot and terminal high altitude area defence (THAAD) missile defence systems. The supply of these interceptors has been severely depleted in recent years due to US intervention in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.During the 12-day conflict between US, Israel and Iran in June 2025, the US used more than 150 THAAD missiles, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Though exact US defence stock levels are classified, this represents more than a quarter of stockpiles based on estimates reported by the CSIS.These attacks came after the US had already expended a significant amount of missile interceptors during the previous year as it defended against Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.Between 2020 and 2025, the US has supplied Ukraine with about $45.1b worth of military aid that included an extensive number of Patriot systems and munitions, further exhausting its stockpiles, according to the Council of Foreign Relations.By launching its most recent offensive in Iran, the US is expected to further deplete its military reserves.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Iran is producing more than 100 missiles each month.“Compare that to the six or seven interceptors that can be built a month,” he said.“The objective of this mission is the destruction of ballistic missile capabilities and naval capabilities.”This may forecast a major issue for the US, as supply chains of minerals and metals critical to the production of these military assets — including rare earth elements (REEs) and gallium — remain dominated by China.The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that China accounts for about 61% of rare earth production, as well as 92% of processing, and more than 98% of global gallium production.On February 27, the day before the US offensive on Iran commenced, the US Government put out a request to domestic miners asking how fast they could develop mines to produce tungsten and 12 additional elements, Reuters reported.During last year’s US-China trade war, Beijing nearly crippled global industry supply chains when it cut off the export of gallium and other rare earths. China’s introduction of tighter export controls on minerals with dual civil-military uses further exacerbated global trade pressures.As the latest strategic push to reduce reliance on battery materials from China, the US Department of Commerce announced anti-dumping and countervailing duties on selected Chinese anode producers, an element integral to military equipment, pushing the total tariff minimum to about 103%, according to the US Federal Register.With US and Chinese trade negotiators slated to meet mid-March, China may once again be able to leverage its monopoly on these critical industries and capitalise on the urgency the US is facing to bolster its military systems.Given that China has openly condemned the US’ actions in Iran, trade negotiations may be tense.Chinese Foreign Ministry Mao Ning says the US-Israeli strikes on Iran violate international law.“China is deeply concerned over the regional spillover believes that the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the Gulf states should likewise be fully respected,” she said.“China firmly opposes the use of force in international relations or infringement on other countries’ sovereignty and security.”US President Donald Trump is set to visit China between March 31 and April 2 to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. It will be the first trip by an US president since President Trump’s visit in 2017.Though there has been a global effort to diversify supply chains outside of China, including the framework signed between the Australia and the US last October, change does not happen overnight.The US is not the only country feeling the rising critical minerals pressure.In response to escalating global instability, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) defence member countries have set a goal to increase defence spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035, a substantial increase on the 2% benchmark established at the 2014 Wales Summit.A new report from S&P Global, Critical minerals briefing December quarter 2025, found that even under a conservative scenario, NATO defence spending could rise substantially through 2035, intensifying supply risks for NATO’s defence-critical minerals.Since 2015, NATO defence expenditure has increased 40%, according to S&P Global.Global defence spending in FY25 alone rising 2.5% from the previous year to $3.73t , according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).Even under a conservative 3% GDP cap, NATO’s 2026–35 defence expenditures could increase 40%, driving a substantial rise in demand for these critical minerals, according to S&P Global, and the minerals most at risk of supply disruptions include gallium and REEs.Australia has also seen significant increases to its defence expenditure with the Federal Government estimating Australia’s defence budget for FY26 to be $59b, representing a 4.2% nominal increase on the previous year.Though not a NATO member, Australia is considered an ally for its strong ties with member nations — and its pipeline of critical minerals projects are positioned to be crucial for developing resilient and self-sufficient critical minerals supply chains.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) will invest $473m to extend the mine life of the Zulti South project to 2050 and lift the suspension that has been in place since January 2020.Construction is anticipated to commence in Q1 2026 and will take 30 months to be completed. Initial commercial production is expected in Q4 2028.The first phase of construction will support RBM’s supply of zircon and ilmenite, while the second phase will follow as part of the long-term development strategy.Rio Tinto says that as the orebody at Zulti North declines, Zulti South is important to RBM for maintaining a stable supply of zircon, rutile, and ilmenite and supporting titanium dioxide sales over the life of the mine.Rio Tinto iron & titanium Africa operations & RBM managing director Werner Duvenhage says lifting the suspension on Zulti South means securing the future of RBM.“This project is not about expansion; it represents our commitment to sustaining jobs and continuing to make a meaningful contribution to the province, the country and the host communities,” he said.“The decision to proceed also reflects improved security conditions and strengthened community partnerships.“The support of government, Amakhosi and host communities has been vital in getting us where we are today and establishing this stability. We are committed to working with all stakeholders to ensure the project’s continued success.”China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) has been appointed as the EPC contractor for the construction of Zulti South due to their performance and strong track record including a strategic partnership with Rio Tinto on the Simandou project in Guinea.