By Ashleigh Madden
Strong signals are emerging that a very powerful potentially ‘super’ El Niño could develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean later this year.
El Niño on the Horizon
The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral state meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are occurring. However, there are strong indications that El Niño will emerge as we head into the Southern Hemisphere’s winter.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific an area called the Niño 3.4 region become warmer than average. The Bureau of Meteorology’s threshold is at or above 0.8°C above average.
The first indicator of the looming El Niño is a large pool of abnormally warm water sitting beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific. While surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are currently near average, there is a large slab of unusually warm water sitting around 50 to 250 metres below the surface. Sub-surface temperature anomalies have strengthened in recent months, exceeding 6°C in some areas. It’s possible these warm waters will upwell towards the surface in the coming weeks and months, triggering El Niño conditions.
A second sign is overwhelming agreement between global forecast models. At this time of year, forecasts are typically uncertain due to the autumn predictability barrier (spring predictability barrier in the Northern Hemisphere). Despite this, there is strong model consensus that El Niño will develop in the next few months.
Could This Become a ‘Super’ El Niño?
Some models predict that the imminent El Niño will become a very strong event sometimes referred to as a ‘super El Niño’ where sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region reach 2.0°C above average or higher. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre, there is roughly a 25% chance of a very strong El Niño towards the end of this year.
What Does El Niño Mean for Australia’s Weather?
El Niño does not guarantee any particular weather outcome for Australia, but it does make certain conditions more likely, particularly during winter and spring.
In general, El Niño typically causes:
- Below-average rainfall over large areas of Australia during winter and spring, with weaker influence in summer and autumn.
- Above-average maximum temperatures for most areas outside the tropics, particularly in the second half of the year.
- Enhanced evaporation due to above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall, which can cause or intensify drought a key risk for agriculture and water-dependent industries.
- More intense daily heat extremes in southern Australia, but with a reduced frequency of prolonged heatwaves relevant for outdoor workforce safety and energy demand planning.
- Increased frost risk in winter and spring due to enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies a concern for horticulture and transport infrastructure.
- Increased risk of dangerous fire days in southeastern Australia as temperatures rise through spring and summer, critical for asset protection and emergency preparedness in energy, mining, and forestry.
- Decreased alpine snow depths and a shorter snow season.
Event Strength and Other Climate Drivers
The strength of El Niño can also affect how strongly it influences Australia’s weather. Stronger events make the impacts above more likely however, even a weak El Niño can cause significant disruption. No two El Niño events are the same, and other influences including regional ocean temperatures near Australia and secondary drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will shape how El Niño plays out in the coming months.
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