Albanese cuts fuel excise in half

By Samantha Bawden

Tuesday, 31 March 2026

Economics & Commodity PricesNews

The Federal Government is halving fuel excise costs by more than $.26/L for three months to deliver immediate fuel relief to households and industry.

The MOU supports Metallium’s plan to develop a national network of e-waste processing facilities, strategically located near major e-waste collection hubs, rapidly expanding U.S. data centre industrial parks and regional industrial corridors with strong logistics and waste generation.

Energy market shock expected to drive inflation

Economics & Commodity PricesNews

Energy market shock expected to drive inflation

Australia’s economic outlook has shifted following escalation of conflict in the Middle East as rising energy costs are expected to push inflation higher than previously forecast, according to Commonwealth Bank economists.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lifted its inflation forecast for Australia in 2026 to 4.1%, citing higher oil prices and renewed disruption to global energy markets.Commonwealth Bank Australia (CBA) expects inflation to rise further in the near term while economic growth slows as households and businesses face higher costs and tighter financial conditions.Commonwealth Bank Australian economics head Belinda Allen says the energy shock has complicated an already delicate economic balance.“Prior to the conflict, the Australian economy was operating above its supply capacity and inflation was proving stubborn,” she said.“The latest energy shock adds a new layer of complexity, lifting inflation further while also weighing on growth.“There is a wide range of possible outcomes from here.“What is clear is that higher energy prices are a headwind for the economy and both households and policymakers will need to navigate a more challenging environment.”Under CBA’s central oil price scenario, headline inflation is now expected to rise to about 5.4% by mid 2026 and trimmed mean inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred underlying measure, is forecast to peak at 3.8% before easing gradually as economic growth slows and labour market conditions soften.The most immediate impact is expected to come through fuel prices as retail petrol and diesel prices have already risen sharply and could increase further in coming months as global oil prices remain elevated.Beyond fuel, higher energy costs are expected to flow through to a wide range of goods and services, including transport and freight, as supply chain disruptions linked to shipping routes through the Middle East are also adding to pricing pressures.While inflation in Australia is expected to remain elevated in the near term, CBA economists expect it to moderate in 2027 as demand slows and unemployment rises.Business investment growth is also expected to be softer, though CBA assesses that the pipeline for business investment is less sensitive to these headwinds than households.However, softer economic conditions and higher oil prices are still expected to impact the profitability of many businesses, which will reduce the cashflow available for investment.Another risk is financial market stress increasing globally, which would make funding conditions in Australia for large projects more challenging and slow the rollout of projects, including within the resources sector.However, this outlook remains highly uncertain and will depend heavily on how the conflict evolves and how long energy prices remain high, CBA economists say.

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Economics & Commodity PricesNews

Solar and wind to lead Australia’s decarbonisation effort

Solar and onshore wind form the basis for the least costly electricity mix for Australia moving towards the 2030 renewables target, according to CSIRO’s new GenCost draft report.CSIRO and Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released their annual GenCost draft report in light of the timely debate surrounding Australia’s energy transition and taxpayer funds.Gas (4%), hydrogen (6%), coal (18%), solar PV (31%) and wind (41%) were projected to be the least-cost large-scale generation mix to achieve the 2030 renewable energies target.Battery technologies continue to show double digit cost reductions with a 15% reduction in FY26. Onshore winds costs are stabilising shown through a 5% drop in cost. Costs of solar rebounded to FY23 increases of 9% after experiencing two years of cost reductions.Contrastingly, nuclear, coal and gas open cycle cost trends have increased due to higher steam and gas turbine energy costs.CSIRO chief energy economist and GenCost project leader Paul Graham comments on the findings.“Electricity systems will always require a diversity of resources to deliver all their functions and so no single technology will meet all the system’s needs regardless of its relative cost position,” he said.The report found the average cost of wholesale electricity would be $91MWh, under the assumption of meeting 82% of the 2030 renewables target, including costs for new transmission lines.To deliver net zero by 2050, generation costs were projected to be $135-$148MWh including transmission or $114-$125MWh for wholesale generation costs alone. The National Energy Market (NEM) volume-weighted generation prices in FY25 were in line with these ranges at around $129MWh.To deliver net zero by 2050, the report found the efficient electricity sector emissions intensity estimated at .02–.05t of carbon dioxide equivalent/MWh.Eliminating all electricity sector emissions (currently estimated at 0.5t of carbon dioxide equivalent/MWh) was reported to be more costly than reducing emissions elsewhere in the economy. If the electricity emissions intensity sat higher than .05 of carbon dioxide equivalent/MWh, it would make achieving net zero more expensive overall.AEMO executive general manager system design Nicola Falcon comments on the report which will be available for public consultation.“CSIRO’s process to regularly monitor, consult on and update generation technology cost trajectories is incredibly valuable in planning for a reliable and least-cost electricity market,” she said.Formal consultation on the Draft 2025-26 Report is open from December 23 until February 2.

Last week, CMRG reportedly told several Chinese steel mills they can purchase some BHP cargoes, relaxing restrictions that had been in place since September 2025.

Economics & Commodity PricesNews

BHP-China trade talks come to an end

BHP (ASX: BHP) has concluded price talks for its iron ore sales contract with the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) after more than seven months of negotiations.This closely follows a recent trip to China by BHP chief executive Mike Henry and incoming chief executive Brandon Craig.Despite the prolonged negotiations, BHP posted solid metrics for both iron ore production and price in the March quarter. WAIO achieved record production with an average realised price of US$84.91/wmt, up 2% from the year prior.“BHP has delivered strong performance over the past nine months, including record material mined and concentrator throughput at Escondida and record production at WAIO,” Mr Henry said.“These results reflect the consistency of our operations and the strength of our high margin diversified portfolio in an evolving operating environment.”BHP now expects its FY26 group copper production to fall in the upper half of the guidance range, with Escondida and Antamina offsetting Spence, which had its guidance lowered due to ongoing ore characteristic challenges. Samarco is now expected to achieve the top end of its FY26 production guidance range.“In copper, strong performance at Escondida and Antamina supports our expectation of delivering production in the upper half of FY26 group copper guidance,” Mr Henry said.“We continue to make steady progress across our copper growth program, consistent with our focus on long-life, high-quality copper supply and disciplined capital allocation.“During the quarter we submitted a permit application for Escondida’s new concentrator and Resolution Copper achieved a key milestone, allowing the project to progress drilling required to complete its mine design and feasibility study.“Our balance sheet remains strong, and in the last month we have realised ~US$4.8 bn by completing the Antamina silver streaming transaction and finalising the divestment of Carajás, as well as cash received in relation to the earlier divestment of Blackwater and Daunia.“Our centralised procurement capability and our low-cost operations have positioned us advantageously in the face of industry wide pressure on the cost of energy and consumables as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.”Looking ahead, Brandon Craig will assume the role of chief executive from July 1.

WA resources sector spend hits record high

Economics & Commodity PricesNews

WA resources sector spend hits record high

The WA resources sector reported a record spend of $166b in 2025 —the equivalent of $454m every day — according to the Chamber of Minerals and Energy (CME) WA’s latest economic contribution survey. The spend includes $26b in wages to direct employees, $101.4b in payments made to contractors, community groups and local governments as well as $38.6b paid in taxes and royalties to the State and Federal governments. The majority of the spend occurred in WA, accounting for $114b, where the resources sector now supports two in five jobs and provides just under a quarter of the WA Government’s general revenue, according to data from the CME. CME chief executive Aaron Morey says the rise of the WA resources sector had created hundreds of thousands of jobs, transformed national living standards and provided a funding base for the services Australians rely on every day. “The WA resources paid $26.9b in taxes last year, which is around $74m every day,” he said. In addition to the wages paid to 144,784 direct employees, the survey found industry payments to suppliers and contractors had more than doubled in the space of three years to reach $100.6b to more than 26,000 local businesses in FY25. “Behind every mine or energy project is a network of local businesses — accountants, caterers, engineers — supporting jobs in communities across Australia,” Mr Morey said. “Each of those businesses plays a vital role for our sector — and our sector in turn is a vital source of income for those suppliers and contractors. “It is a powerful demonstration of the multiplier effect of a strong resources sector that is supported to invest in the infrastructure, technology and people to remain competitive in an increasingly contested global landscape.”

Next-generation miners tested in old-school methods

Next-generation miners tested in old-school methods

Engineering and geology students will dig, pan and muck their way across Langley Park in Perth, WA, this weekend in the 2025 AusIMM Asia Pacific Mining Games Competition. This year’s games, formerly known as the National Mining Games Competition, will be the biggest in the event’s history, with 34 teams from 14 student chapters of AusIMM competing in a series of challenges based on old-school techniques. The games will also go public for the first time, with the event held on Perth’s doorstep to accommodate the hundreds of competitors and showcase WA as a mining hub. The 2025 event is being organised and hosted by student chapters from The University of Western Australia (UWA), Curtin University and the WA School…

BHP ordered to compensate workers in pay dispute

NewsPeople & Workforce

BHP ordered to compensate workers in pay dispute

The Federal Court has ordered BHP (ASX: BHP) to pay about $84,000 to 85 workers for unlawfully requiring them to work over holidays without providing a reasonable right of refusal.

Cobalt Blue pioneers Australia’s first cobalt refinery

Cobalt Blue pioneers Australia’s first cobalt refinery

Cobalt Blue (ASX: COB) has signed a binding pre-final investment decision consortium deed with Iwatani Australia to develop Australia’s first cobalt refinery located in Kwinana, WA. The deed outlined terms in which both companies will advance the refinery towards a final investment decision (FID). Conditions of the agreement include: Samples produced by Cobalt Blue meeting customer specifications Finalising a suite of Project related agreements covering joint venture relationships and operational plans, feedstock supply and offtake, and intellectual property licensing Completion of technical studies and independent due diligence reviews Agreement on a financing plan to cover project funding Iwatani Australia obtaining Foreign Investment Review Board approval If a positive FID is made between the companies, targeted for December 2025, the Kwinana…

Copper overtakes iron ore as BHP’s breadwinner as China talks stall

Economics & Commodity PricesNews

Copper overtakes iron ore as BHP’s breadwinner as China talks stall

BHP (ASX: BHP) is cashing in on the global clean energy transition with copper overtaking iron ore as the company’s biggest earner for the first time ever.Copper delivered 51% of BHP’s earnings for H1 FY26, bolstering the company’s returns to $7.9b for the six-month period.As the self-proclaimed largest copper producer in the world, BHP has grown its production by about 30% in the last four years, backed by production from its Escondida copper mine in Chile and Olympic Dam in South Australia.Copper price increased 32% over the previous 12 months, group revenue rose about 11% and attributable profit increased 28%, supported by higher prices and operational performance.During the half, BHP’s copper operations generated about 10% higher revenue and 6% higher underlying EBITDA than BHP’s iron ore division.This follows reports that BHP diverted shipments of its Jimblebar iron ore to alternative buyers in Malaysia and Vietnam after China’s state-run buyer China Mineral Resource Group (CMRG) banned local steel mills and traders from purchasing the product.This placed pressure on BHP to accept new price-setting mechanisms as contract negotiations stalled.A resolution is yet to be met between BHP and CMRG and the redirected shipments may incline that BHP is seeking to diversify its buyers.BHP chief executive Mike Henry says the company is optimistic that the economic backdrop is supportive for its key commodities, including iron ore.Iron ore prices have dipped since the start of 2026, with prices falling 6.5% over the previous month according to Trading Economics, and this is likely to solidify copper’s position as BHP’s breadwinner.BHP chief executive Mike Henry says the company has clear plans to increase copper production.“In copper, we are already the world’s largest producer… Our lower-risk pathway represents production growth of around 40% by 2035,” he said.BHP currently has multiple greenfield copper projects in its growth pipeline, including Resolution in the US and Vicuña in Argentina, as well as several expansion plans for its existing copper operations.“This is capital efficient, predominantly brownfield growth that will further increase the proportion of our earnings from copper,” Mr Henry said.BHP expects global demand for copper to grow by about 70% by 2050, and it is not the only company to jump on the copper bandwagon.Earlier this year Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) entered merger talks with global copper major Glencore. The discussions however were fruitless, with neither party willing to cede on leadership nor price.In December, Anglo American and Teck Resources shareholders approved a $53b merger of equals between the copper-powerhouses to form Anglo Teck.Anglo Teck is expected to be a top five global copper producer with combined production from its mines in Chile, Peru and Canada of about 1.2mt and predicted to reach 1.35mt by 2027.Prior to the Anglo Teck announcement, Anglo American rejected BHP’s formal $75b takeover offer due to its complex structure and value risks.BHP is also leaning into diversification beyond copper.On Wednesday, amid soaring silver prices, the miner announced it had entered an agreement to deliver silver to Wheaton Precious Metals International for an upfront payment of $6.1b . The silver would be supplied by Antamina mine, located in Peru, which BHP owns a 33.75% stake in.The agreement forms part of BHP’s goal to free up $14.2b with the sale of non-core assets.