WA vanadium miners get royalty relief

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have reached a trade and economic deal to suspend additional export controls on rare-earth metals, according to the White House.

Rio beats estimates despite China pressure Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) reported record iron ore and copper production during Q4 CY25 — a successful first quarter for recently ascended chief executive Simon Trott.The company recorded a 4% increase in year-on-year (YoY) production and a 7% rise in YoY shipment number, exporting 91.3mt of iron ore during the quarter, most of which was bound for China.Another milestone in Rio’s iron ore business was achieved during the quarter with the highly anticipated inaugural cargo from the Simandou iron ore project leaving Guinea, Africa.Rio reported that mine operations bounced back from cyclone impacts in Q1, recovering 9mt of the 13mt of output lost due to cyclone, to ship a total 326.2mt for 2025 — meeting the company’s guidance of 323mt to 338mt.Rio’s realised iron ore prices for the quarter were up 1% contrasted to BHP (ASX: BHP), who, earlier this week, reported it had agreed to lower prices for some iron ore sales while still undertaking negotiations with China for a 2026 supply deal.Rio Tinto chief executive Simon Trott says operations delivered exceptional production performance, both on a quarter-on-quarter and full year basis.“We achieved record quarterly iron ore production in the Pilbara, with a strong recovery from the extreme weather interruptions earlier in the year,” he said.“At Simandou, we celebrated the major milestone of first shipment from the port — a testament to our ability to deliver major growth projects.”There are a number of hurdles iron ore majors will face this year, with steel demand forecast to fall 1.5%, according to China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI), likely having resonating effects on global iron ore markets.Stockpiles at China’s ports are also rising rapidly. According to Shanghai SteelHome E-Commerce Co, there is at least 155mt of iron ore now stockpiled at Chinese ports — the highest level since April 2024 — suggesting further demand softening.Diversified assets deliver strong resultsUnderpinned by the ramp up at Oyu Tolgoi, annual copper production rose 11% YoY, exceeding the top end of Rio’s increased guidance range, and shipments increased 5%.Rio’s bauxite and lithium operations also finished the year strong, supported by record quarterly production from lithium assets in Argentina and bauxite production reaching 15.4mt in Q4 CY25.“Record copper production continues following delivery of our Oyu Tolgoi underground project, another demonstration of our unique and diverse project capabilities,” Mr Trott said.“In lithium, we achieved production growth from our operations and in-flight projects as planned in 2025, as we build out our high-quality portfolio with discipline.“Implementation of our stronger, sharper, simpler way of working continues, and is delivering results and creating value.”Rio is currently in preliminary takeover talks with Glencore and its strong quarter results could bolster its standing. Rio has until February 5 to make a formal offer for Glencore.

Critical Minerals Group (CMG) (ASX: CMG) has received a $2m grant from the Queensland Government under the Queensland Critical Minerals and Battery Technology Fund.The grant will partially fund the development of a vanadium electrolyte manufacturing demonstration plant consisting of a single 12-cell electrolyser unit that has the capacity to produce one million litres of vanadium electrolyte per year.

Global lithium demand could exceed 13mt by 2050 under an accelerated energy transition, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest Energy Transition Outlook for Lithium.The report found that without significant new investment, supply deficits could emerge as early as 2028 as existing supply projects are unlikely to meet demand beyond the mid-2030s.Highlighting the need for sustained investment across the value chain, Wood Mackenzie predicts the global lithium industry requires up to $393b in new investment to prevent the looming supply deficit.In the report, Wood Mackenzie models four energy transition pathways, with lithium demand in 2050 ranging from 5.6mt LCE under a delayed transition to 13.2mt LCE in a net zero scenario.Under the delayed transition scenario, the market will remain adequately supplied until 2037 before entering deficit.Under the country pledges scenario, deficits emerge around 2029, requiring an additional 6.7mt LCE of supply by 2050 to meet projected demand, and under the net zero scenario, deficits are expected to begin in 2028 and persist through mid-century.Wood Mackenzie research director Allan Pedersen says the lithium market is heading into a supply crunch sooner than many industry players may suspect.“Under ambitious climate scenarios, we see deficits emerging from 2028,” he said.“The industry needs to act now should governments progress policies towards Net Zero. Projects approved today will determine market balance in the critical 2030s.”Electric vehicles (EVs) remain the primary driver of demand growth, accounting for 72–80% of lithium consumption across scenarios, according to Wood Mackenzie.The report also noted that rechargeable batteries across all applications account for 96–98% of lithium consumption by mid-century.Wood Mackenzie senior research analyst Rebecca Grant says energy storage systems (ESS) are the sleeper story.“ESS demand grows at 6-7% annually in our forward scenarios as renewables dominate new power capacity and grids require flexibility at scale,” she said.According to Wood Mackenzie, total investment requirements range from about $148b under a delayed transition scenario to $393b under a net zero scenario.Investment is expected to peak between 2030 and 2034, driven by the need for new mining capacity, refining infrastructure and regional supply chains.“The winners will be those who can deploy capital efficiently while navigating trade fragmentation and securing regional market access,” Ms Grant said.Across all scenarios, one conclusion is consistent — lithium is irreplaceable for the energy transition and the industry faces structural supply challenges that require immediate action.“Whether we're on a 1.5°C pathway or something less ambitious, lithium demand will outstrip current supply plans,” Mr Pedersen said.“The question isn't whether we need more lithium. It's whether the industry can mobilise capital fast enough to meet demand while navigating an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.”