Global energy crisis now ‘largest in history’
Long gone are the days of sub dollar prices at the bowser.The global oil market is experiencing unprecedented turmoil as the war in the Middle East creates the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).The crisis has led to a near halt in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint between Oman and Iran. As crude and oil product flows plunge from about 20mb/d before the war to a trickle at present, Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10mb/d, according to IEA data.With limited options to bypass the chokepoint, the strain is being felt by producers and consumers worldwide.Benchmark crude oil prices have surged about 40% since the start of the conflict, according to Trading Economics.Damage to Gulf state energy infrastructure is also having a major effect on prices.On March 19, Israel targeted Iranian facilities linked to South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas field.In response, Iran struck a major LNG site in Qatar, causing crude prices to surge 8% overnight with prices nearly hitting US$120 a barrel.In the absence of a rapid resumption of shipping flows and unrestricted refining capacity, the IEA anticipates increasing supply losses.CommBank commodities and sustainable economics head Vivek Dhar says while rising crude prices have captured global attention, refined fuel is the bigger concern for economies.“The product everyone is worried about is diesel, and for good reason,” Mr Dhar said.Diesel is used extensively in trucking, farming and mining in Australia.“The concern is that we roughly have 30 days of stockpiles,” Mr Dhar said.As petrol and diesel prices skyrocket, governments globally are scrambling to stave off panic buying and price gouging as they address fuel shortages.According to the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission (ACCC), petrol and diesel prices varied significantly across Australia but, on average, have increased by about 50 cents since the beginning of March.Yesterday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese convened a meeting of the national cabinet and established a national fuel supply taskforce to lead the country’s response to the ongoing crisis.“I want to assure Australians at this time that Australia is well prepared… I want us to be overprepared,” Prime Minister Albanese said.Leaders agreed that while Australia is well prepared, the longer the conflict in the Middle East goes on, the more significant the impact will be for global supply chains, fuel prices and the wider economy.The Federal Government has appointed former Australian Energy Regulator chief executive Anthea Harris as the taskforce coordinator to drive collaboration across governments and sectors.As part of Ms Harris’ role, she will provide regular updates on fuel supply outlook and distribution.The Federal Government confirmed there are some shortages in specific areas due to panic buying.“There is not less fuel in Australia today than there was three weeks ago,” prime Minister Albanese said.“There is not less supply. This is an issue… of increased demand.”Since the conflict commenced two weeks ago the Federal Government has released up to 20% of its diesel and fuel reserves to help address regional shortages and temporarily amended national fuel standards to keep more Australian-made fuels onshore.IEA member countries have also agreed to release an unprecedented 400m barrels of oil from their emergency reserves to the market to mitigate the negative impact on economies from the supply disruptions.Though the emergency stock release provides a welcomed buffer for the global energy market, it remains a stop-gap measure if the conflict in the Middle East is not resolved.