Resources and energy export values expected to ease

Over the next two years, the value of Australia’s resources and energy exports is forecast to ease from the 2022-2023 record high as commodity prices return to more normal levels.

According to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources’ September edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly, an easing in resources and energy export values to $400b in 2023-2024 and $352b in 2024-2025 is forecast as world demand softens and global supply stabilises.

Further, iron ore export earnings are expected to fall to $120b in 2023-2024, LNG earnings are forecast to drop to $71b this year, lithium exports are forecast to decrease to $18b this year and earnings from metallurgical coal are expected to decline to $47b in 2023-2024.

This outlook is broadly in line with projections in the March and June editions of the Resources and Energy Quarterly.

Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King said the lower earnings reflected a return to more normal prices due to concerns about sluggish world growth and an easing in supply problems.

“While overall export revenue is easing from record highs, Australia’s resources and energy exports remain strong and continue to underpin Australia’s economic wellbeing,” she said.

“Australia remains a reliable and stable supplier of resources and energy to our export customers, and we are working to build investment, partnerships and supply chains for our critical minerals sector which will help the world meet commitments to lower emissions.”

The September quarterly also features a special chapter on the global battery value chain which shows Australia is a leading exporter of battery minerals such as nickel, lithium, copper and cobalt.