Author: Samantha Bawden

Coal slumps to record low as renewables supply majority of NEM power Coal-fired generation for the National Electricity Market (NEM) fell to an all-time quarterly low, down 4.6% year-on-year, as renewables account for a record 52.4% of total energy needs during Q4 CY25.Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics report showed average prices of $50/MWh for the NEM, a 43% decrease from the previous quarter.The quarter saw strong growth in renewable and storage output, with wind generation up 29%, grid scale solar up 15% and battery discharge nearly tripling to an average of 268MW, supported by 3,796MW of new battery capacity added since late 2024.AEMO policy and corporate affairs executive general manager Violette Mouchaileh says the quarter marked a significant milestone for Australia’s energy transition.“This is a landmark moment for the NEM. For the first time, renewables and storage supplied more than half of the system’s energy needs for a full quarter,” she said.“It reflects years of sustained investment and demonstrates that more wind, solar and battery capacity in the system reduces reliance on higher cost coal and gas generation, placing sustained downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices.”Rooftop solar hit an all-time quarterly high of 4,407MW (up 8.7%), reducing daytime operational demand and contributing to battery charging while new minimum operational demand records were set for the NEM (down 4% to 9,666MW), Victoria (1,287MW), Tasmania (678MW) and South Australia (-263MW).The East Coast Gas Market saw a 3% reduction in total demand, largely driven by lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) export requirements in Queensland.Many of the trends seen in the NEM were also reflected in WA’s Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM), with renewable and storage generation reaching new highs.Increased renewable and battery generation placed downward pressure on wholesale energy prices — driving a 32% drop — and contributed to a reduction in both coal and gas-fired output, which fell 5.8% and 16.4%, respectively.WA’s domestic gas market also saw consumption fall 9.3% during the quarter.WA Energy and Decarbonisation Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson says AEMO’s report reflects the progress made to support new investments in renewable generation and battery storage."Backed by gas, this will see the lowest cost energy mix that will drive WA's clean energy future,” she said."The Government will continue to pursue the sensible and pragmatic policies needed to build on these outstanding results — to deliver affordable and reliable energy for WA households and businesses."

MinRes reassesses mothballed lithium mine Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) reported increased lithium production during Q2 FY26, confirming its Bald Hill lithium operations may have hopes of resurrecting as prices rebound.MinRes has upgraded its lithium production guidance for FY26 to 260-280kdmt at its Wodgina operations and to 190-210kdmt at Mt Marion — a production increase of up to 30% on the lower end of previous figures.Total attributable spodumene production for the quarter across both sites hit 138kdmt, with sales of 143kdmt. Cost guidance across both sites has been maintained.The company managed an average of about $1555 /t for its 6% lithium spodumene during the quarter — a 29% quarter-on-quarter increase.With the IEA estimating that lithium demand will see eightfold growth by 2040, MinRes could be positioned to capitalise on the commodity’s resurgence.In late 2024, the company shut the doors at its Bald Hill operations in WA to preserve cash and value of the orebody for when global conditions in the lithium market improved. Given the current market dynamics, MinRes’ lithium portfolio may now have its moment.The company’s Q2 performance was also bolstered by resilient iron ore prices, despite ongoing pressures from China, with an average reported realised price of about $130 /dmt across its Onslow Iron and Pilbara Hub operations.Total quarterly iron ore production across both operations hit a record 11.5mt, with shipments of 11.1mt.The company maintained its volume and cost guidance across all operations, excluding lithium, and reported it was sitting at $600m in cash and $800m in undrawn revolving credit. Net debt decreased to $4.9b, down $500m from the previous quarter, and included a $63m positive foreign exchange revaluation on the company’s unsecured bonds.The company looks to be in a stronger market position after reporting a $900m loss in FY25.During the quarter, MinRes executed a binding agreement with POSCO for the sale of a 30% stake in its Wodinga and Mt Marion operations, an indirect 15% of each, for an upfront cash consideration of about $1.1b . The transaction is expected to be completed during H2 FY26.

Brownfield expansion overtakes greenfield development Brownfield development has intensified in recent years and — despite global mineral demand rising faster than supply growth — new mine commissioning has slowed.A new study, led by researchers from The University of Queensland’s Sustainable Minerals Institute (SMI), provides a snapshot of the potential social and environmental costs of this growing trend and the implications for sustainable development.As worldwide demand for minerals surges, mining companies have been doubling down on investment into brownfield development, with the study showing increasing investment in brownfield mining over greenfield sites.This is particularly prevalent in minerals crucial to renewable energy technologies, transport, digital and defence infrastructure — most notably, copper and lithium.Growing demand reflects the rapid uptake of decarbonisation technologies. Such technologies are considered minerally intense. Electric vehicles require about six times the mineral inputs of conventional cars and onshore wind turbines require significantly more minerals than gas-fired plants of similar capacity.While historical mineral production has broadly kept pace with rising demand, projections show demand growing more sharply in the future. For copper and lithium, projected primary supply from announced mining projects will fall short of demand by 2035 under current policy settings, according to the IEA.To maintain supply, the Federal and State Governments continue to reform policy to support mineral exploration and major project development.Last year, the Federal Government proposed amendments to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act to speed up decision making processes, deliver faster turn arounds and improve bilateral agreements with states and remove duplication for the assessment and approval of projects.Despite growing efforts to streamline approvals for greenfield sites, the global interval between discovery and production has lengthened, now averaging 15.7 years, according to S&P Global.Expansion of brownfield explorationExpanding existing operations has been a cornerstone of many miners’ business models as companies can leverage existing infrastructure and sunk capital.SMI Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining director and lead author Professor Deanna Kemp says 60% of major company exploration budgets in 2024 were at or near existing mines, more than double 2016 levels.“Brownfield mining is an appealing option for mining companies because it maintains production, offers a stronger return on investment, with fewer financial and regulatory risks than establishing new ‘greenfield’ mines, while also deferring the significant costs of closure and rehabilitation,” she said.A snapshot of 366 brownfield sites across 58 countries and16 minerals including critical minerals including cobalt, copper and platinum were used by researchers to understand their social and environmental contexts.The study found that number of new copper mines peaked around 2015, in the early 2000s for iron ore, around 2010–2012 for nickel, and around 2012–2014 for gold. However, since these peaks, and the subsequent decline in the numbers of new mines, production has continued to rise.The research revealed the inverse relationship of rising production with fewer new mines and where output is increasingly concentrated in large, long-life operations for copper, iron ore and nickel — with brownfield capital expenditure being dominated by copper, constituting just under half the total spend.Between 2010 and 2024, expansion dominated industry spending in Australia while other parts of the world saw a gradual increase over the period.According to the researchers, about 80% of the brownfield sites that were studied are located in high risk jurisdictions, facing challenges including water scarcity, poor governance and low press freedom.Regulation of mine expansionThe 2020 destruction of Juukan Gorge, a 47,000-year-old Indigenous cultural heritage site, as part of a legal expansion of an iron ore mine illustrates that brownfield projects can have real and significant costs.“Once a mine has been approved and permitted, expansion is typically a business-as-usual part of developing a mine, even when that expansion changes the original risk of social and environmental impact,” Professor Kemp said.“Brownfield expansion often unfolds incrementally over time, with less public scrutiny: the risk factors involved in each mine site are unique and no-one has really been looking at the scale of growth brownfield mining globally.”The researchers found that more than half of their samples were in locations with multiple complex risk factors like social conflict, fragile ecosystems and weak governance, making it harder for governments and affected communities to respond to the risks presented by these expansions.Mine approval and regulatory standards are usually heavily focused on the beginning of operations by assessing risks and impacts before a mine opens. More recently, there has been an increasing focus on responsible mine closure and land rehabilitation. Both aspects are important, but the research highlights that the way mines expand and extend is becoming more important.“In the ‘middle’ of a mine’s lifespan — when the mine is active there is often less oversight or public focus — changes tend to be regulated, step by step, but the impacts of these expanded operations add up over time,” Professor Kemp said.“More research is needed to quantify the sheer scale of this trend towards greater reliance on brownfield sites, and their cumulative, long-term social and environmental effects.”CSRM research fellow and co-author Dr Julia Loginova says that given that capital is flowing into brownfields, regulatory and academic scrutiny should be moving there as well.“Brownfield sites may be the fastest and economically attractive way to meet rising mineral demand, but it is important to anticipate and manage pressures and long-term liabilities, that’s why further research in this space is very much needed, because there is still a fundamental knowledge gap,” she said.“There is a significant opportunity for interdisciplinary research to better understand scale and impacts, to support improved practice in the sector.”

China-Australia steel dilemma reaches boiling point China has warned the Federal Government that imposing tariffs or quotas on steel imports could damage Australia’s iron ore industry.The warning came after the Anti-Dumping Commission found there were “reasonable grounds” to support claims by Australian suppliers that Chinese companies were undercutting local competitors by dumping millions of dollars’ worth of steel and aluminium products.Dumping occurs when a company exports a product at a price that is lower than the price charged in the country of manufacture — often due to state-backed subsidisation allowing the exporter to sell their goods at a lower price. Global overcapacity in steel production, an industry China dominates, and increasingly protectionist trade policies have led to an increase in this practice.Chinese companies are at the centre of most investigations by the Anti-Dumping Commission about unfair trade across the steel and aluminium sectors.In a letter to the Anti-Dumping Commission, Chinese Ministry of Commerce export division first secretary Fan Xi noted that Australia’s iron ore industry is “deeply interwoven” into China’s steel industry and supply chain cooperation is essential.“We urge the Committee to respect facts and rules, correct its improper approaches, refrain from negatively impacting the stable and healthy cooperation between the industries of both countries, and earnestly adhere to multilateral trade rules,” he said.“We call for avoiding the misuse of trade remedy measures and ensuring the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese exporting enterprises are safeguarded in a fair, just and non-discriminatory manner.”It is no secret China has the ability to disrupt Australia’s iron-ore industry.More than 80% of Australia’s iron ore exports are bound for China, with exports totalling $385b for FY25, according to the Australian National University.If the dispute between China and Australia escalates, it could place further downwards pressure on iron ore pricing.In its recent quarterly report, BHP (ASX: BHP) confirmed that it remains in a deadlock with China’s state-run buyer, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), over an annual buying contract — which has also negatively affected its realised prices.China has long been trying to control market fluctuations. In response to climbing iron ore prices, the Chinese Government established CMRG in 2022 to act as intermediary and centralise iron ore purchasing to improve China’s pricing power in the global market — reverting to private contract negotiations.The state-controlled entity now coordinates 600-700mtpa or about 55-64% of China's total iron ore imports, according to GMK Centre.The Federal Government and iron ore majors are treading lightly as any move that prompts China to further diversify suppliers or alter buying terms can have resounding affects across Australia’s industries.Australian manufacturers are urging the Federal Government to introduce tariffs of 50% as well as a 400,000t-450,000t quota on fabricated steel imports which, if unchecked, pose a threat to the stability of local markets.Federal Industry and Innovation Minister Tim Ayres says Australia has a robust anti-dumping regime that is built to ensure that domestic industry is protected from unfair trade practices overseas.“As Australians saw last year, the announcement of tariffs by the US administration was an unwelcome development,” he said.“We have acted to make sure that our anti-dumping regime is fit for purpose. We’re backing Australian manufacturing because it delivers good jobs in suburbs right around Australia.”For now, Australia continues to grapple with balancing its domestic industries with the need to keep its biggest export market willing to spend.

Fortescue makes moves in Gabon, delivers record iron ore output Despite an increase in operating costs, Fortescue (ASX: FMG) has delivered record iron ore shipments and landed within production guidance for Q2 FY26.The company shipped 50.5mt throughout the quarter, bringing total shipments for the H1 FY26 to 100.2mt — a 3% year-on-year (YoY) increase.Unit costs rose 5% on Q1 prices to $28 /wmt, predominantly due to higher diesel prices and a weaker exchange rate, but the company’s full year guidance remains unchanged.The company’s Pilbara hematite iron ore was reaching about $140 /dmt while higher-grade product from the Iron Bridge operations was hitting about $180 /dmt for the quarter.Fortescue metals and operations chief executive Dino Otranto says the company has had a record first half for FY26.“This was achieved safely and sets us up well heading into the second half to meet our FY26 shipments and cost guidance,” he said.Fortescue also advanced operations at its Belinga iron ore project in Gabon, Africa following successful senior level visits. A Presidential Taskforce has now been established to streamline the planning and delivery of the Belinga iron ore project.The project was acquired in 2021 but has been slow to start for several reasons, including the deposit’s isolated location and lack of supporting infrastructure.Fortescue is set to deliver a feasibility study in December 2026 and start shipping ore by 2030.Fortescue continued to diversify and bolster its critical minerals strategy during the quarter with the acquisition of the remaining 64% of Peruvian copper miner Alta Copper for $152m.Fortescue growth and energy chief executive Gus Pichot says the company continues to make disciplined progress across its global growth portfolio of metals, critical minerals, energy and technology opportunities.“In line with our critical minerals strategy, this quarter we entered into a binding agreement to acquire the remaining 64% of Alta Copper’s shares,” he said.“Fortescue will apply its strong track record of project delivery and well-established technical, permitting and community engagement expertise to diversify and expand our copper portfolio and exploration footprint in Latin America.”During the quarter, Fortescue also reached an important milestone with delivery of its first large-scale battery energy storage system at North Star Junction.“With a total capacity of 250MWh, this installation marks the first step in a planned 4-5GWh rollout of energy storage required to support the decarbonisation of our operations over the coming years,” Mr Otranto said.

Rio beats estimates despite China pressure Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) reported record iron ore and copper production during Q4 CY25 — a successful first quarter for recently ascended chief executive Simon Trott.The company recorded a 4% increase in year-on-year (YoY) production and a 7% rise in YoY shipment number, exporting 91.3mt of iron ore during the quarter, most of which was bound for China.Another milestone in Rio’s iron ore business was achieved during the quarter with the highly anticipated inaugural cargo from the Simandou iron ore project leaving Guinea, Africa.Rio reported that mine operations bounced back from cyclone impacts in Q1, recovering 9mt of the 13mt of output lost due to cyclone, to ship a total 326.2mt for 2025 — meeting the company’s guidance of 323mt to 338mt.Rio’s realised iron ore prices for the quarter were up 1% contrasted to BHP (ASX: BHP), who, earlier this week, reported it had agreed to lower prices for some iron ore sales while still undertaking negotiations with China for a 2026 supply deal.Rio Tinto chief executive Simon Trott says operations delivered exceptional production performance, both on a quarter-on-quarter and full year basis.“We achieved record quarterly iron ore production in the Pilbara, with a strong recovery from the extreme weather interruptions earlier in the year,” he said.“At Simandou, we celebrated the major milestone of first shipment from the port — a testament to our ability to deliver major growth projects.”There are a number of hurdles iron ore majors will face this year, with steel demand forecast to fall 1.5%, according to China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI), likely having resonating effects on global iron ore markets.Stockpiles at China’s ports are also rising rapidly. According to Shanghai SteelHome E-Commerce Co, there is at least 155mt of iron ore now stockpiled at Chinese ports — the highest level since April 2024 — suggesting further demand softening.Diversified assets deliver strong resultsUnderpinned by the ramp up at Oyu Tolgoi, annual copper production rose 11% YoY, exceeding the top end of Rio’s increased guidance range, and shipments increased 5%.Rio’s bauxite and lithium operations also finished the year strong, supported by record quarterly production from lithium assets in Argentina and bauxite production reaching 15.4mt in Q4 CY25.“Record copper production continues following delivery of our Oyu Tolgoi underground project, another demonstration of our unique and diverse project capabilities,” Mr Trott said.“In lithium, we achieved production growth from our operations and in-flight projects as planned in 2025, as we build out our high-quality portfolio with discipline.“Implementation of our stronger, sharper, simpler way of working continues, and is delivering results and creating value.”Rio is currently in preliminary takeover talks with Glencore and its strong quarter results could bolster its standing. Rio has until February 5 to make a formal offer for Glencore.

Fortescue (ASX: FMG) has commenced construction at its first operational wind development. the Nullagine wind project, in the Pilbara, WA.