Mining Matters

Caught in the crossfire of global uncertainty, Australia looks to create a critical minerals domestic supply chain to continue its successful energy transition.

Keep reading to see how governments and mining industry players are working to secure Australia’s future amidst the unknown.

Australia forecasted to fall short of renewable target

Wood Mackenzie has weighed in following the federal election, saying Australia will fall short of its ambitious renewable target.

The Federal Government has committed to a target of 82% renewable electricity generation and a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030, but Wood Mackenzie suggests that current projections indicate it could take more than 15 years before targets are met.

“Despite the Federal Government’s ambitious targets, our analysis indicates that Australia is currently on track to achieve only 58% renewable electricity generation by 2030,” Wood Mackenzie energy storage and solar senior analyst Natalie Thompson said.

“This highlights the urgent need for increased investment and greater coordination across all levels of government to accelerate the energy transition.

“Efforts may be further complicated by moves from some state governments, such as Queensland and the Northern Territory, to repeal or scale back their renewable energy targets.”

Introduced by the Federal Government in 2022, the Capacity Investment Scheme targets 32GW of additional utility-scale solar, wind and storage capacity by 2030. This target builds on the 8.4GW of capacity added to the country’s grid between 2021 and 2024.

“While over 65GW of utility-scale storage projects are in various stages of development, only 5-10% of announced projects are likely to reach financial close,” Ms Thompson said.

“Continued policy support is crucial to overcome grid connection and project planning barriers.”

Despite the forecast, Australia continues to ramp up incentives to encourage energy transition initiatives and work towards the target.

Government subsidies to support distributed storage capacity are anticipated to triple by 2030 and new schemes are already underway. One example is the recently announced $2.3b Cheaper Home Batteries subsidy designed to accelerate growth in the distributed storage market by complementing existing state-level battery rebate programs.

The Federal Government is also continuing its push for the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) through continued investment in the policies such as Driving the Nation Fund and Fringe Benefits Tax exemption for eligible EVs, these policies are expected to significantly drive hybrid and EV adoption over the coming decade, supporting Australia’s broader emissions reduction goals.

“EVs currently represent about 10% of passenger vehicle sales in Australia, with over 350,000 on the road,” Ms Thompson said.

“Our projections show that by 2030, EVs will account for 3.7TWh of demand, or 1% of gross electricity consumption.”

The Federal Government is also working towards transitioning away from coal-fired power generation as well as investing into domestic critical minerals manufacturing and production for minerals key to the energy transition.

Forrest ‘refocusing’ on future of Fortescue green hydrogen

Green hydrogen and its derivatives, such as ammonia, have been praised as the energy of the future, poised to play a critical role in the global transition to a carbon-neutral economy.

Confidence in the alternative energy source is lacking however, with Fortescue (ASX: FMG) pitching to close its 2GW electrolyser factory in Gladstone, Queensland and other potential green hydrogen projects.

Fortescue says it is refocusing its efforts into the research and development of new technologies to deliver green hydrogen at scale more efficiently and cost-effectively.

The company’s project has only been operating since April last year and its potential closure has been met with concern.

Gladstone Region Mayor Matt Burnett says that he is disappointed by the decision but remains optimistic.

“I look forward to working with Fortescue and hopefully we can see their facility reopen sooner rather than later,” he said.

The future of several green hydrogen projects across Australia are now being questioned, but many continue to anticipate industry growth.

The WA Chamber of Minerals and Energy (CME) recently welcomed a series of Federal Government commitments to bolster the state’s reduction of carbon emissions and improve reliability on the main power grid.

$814m in production incentives has been allocated to the 1500MW Murchison Green Hydrogen project through the Hydrogen Headstart fund.

The project, powered by onshore wind and solar, is working to bring the energy transition to the midwest region of WA and is expected to produce 1.3mt of ammonia annually.

WA Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen comments on the project.

“Australia has one of the largest renewable hydrogen project pipelines in the world,” he said.

“This support is about unlocking that private capital to help realise our potential, not only to become a renewable energy superpower but create a Future Made in Australia with real jobs right now.”

Antimony: Australia steps up in critical minerals race

Antimony is one silvery heat-resistant mineral that is high on every country’s critical mineral list. With uses in the defence sector, solar panel manufacturing and battery production, interest in the mineral is rising globally.

Yet, despite being the home of the world’s fourth richest supply of antimony, Australia produces less than 1% of the global supply. As the mineral is often found within or near gold deposits, due to their shared chemical behaviours and geological origins, it is no surprise that Australia is rich in this natural resource.

Mandalay Resources’ Costerfield gold and antimony mine in Victoria is the country’s only operational antimony producer. Currently in its second year of operations, Costerfield is expected to produce more than 1,100t of antimony in 2025.

As critical minerals interest heats up in the race to create a domestic reserve, many gold mining companies are setting their sights on dual production of gold and antimony. One company, Warriedar Resources (ASX: WA8), has just revealed what may be Australia’s next largest antimony project.

Warriedar Resources has delivered what it believes is Australia’s largest deposit of the critical mineral. The company has reported a mineral resource estimation (MRE) for its Ricciardo deposit, located in the Murchison region of WA, of 12.2mt at .5% antimony for 60.3kt contained antimony.

This represents the largest contained antimony resource in WA and the largest open pit antimony resource in Australia on granted mining lease, according to Warriedar Resources.

The company also provided an updated gold resource MRE which now stands at 1.96moz of gold equivalent, a 107% increase from the previous estimate.

Warriedar managing director and chief executive Amanda Buckingham says this was an undeniably exciting milestone for the company.

“Through a diligent and systematic evaluation of historical drilling data, we have defined Australia’s largest open pit antimony resource, from a standing start,” she said.

“This exercise has been undertaken against a backdrop of surging antimony prices, as the supply constraints and geopolitical dynamics in this market come into sharp focus globally.

“The next phase of advancing the considerable antimony opportunity at Golden range is launching dedicated antimony focused drilling, for the first time ever on this tenure, alongside ongoing metallurgical test work.

“We will undertake this work in parallel with our ongoing primary focus, which is further growing the existing gold resources at the Golden Range via targeted extensional and new discovery drilling through 2025 within the highly prospective 25km long ‘golden corridor’.”

Warriedar has an existing resource base of more than 2.3moz of gold across both WA and Nevada in the US and are rapidly expanding antimony exploration prospects.